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A prophecy

At the end of December 2021, we have comprehensively grasped the economic data and industry development laws, and gave a year-end fluctuation range of 165,000-185,000/ton APT in a bullish expectation. At the Ganzhou meeting in March, many suppliers actively When the high APT was about to reach 190,000 or even 200,000/ton, we promptly reminded the possible risks of the economic crisis, and the market price also peaked and fell as expected before 185,000/ton, and is currently in a stalemate when it returns to above 165,000/ton. . According to the economic situation at the end of last year and the first quarter, it seems that the current price should enter a rebound stage, but the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the unexpected increase in interest rates in the United States have disrupted the process of global economic development, and the outbreak of the epidemic in China has also caused an early crisis on the consumer side. , the forecast conditions in the short term have deteriorated. The previously expected bottom of 165,000 / ton will move down significantly. With some pessimistic forecasts, the current low price is likely to become the high price in the third quarter or even the second half of the year. At present, the tungsten ore market continues to rely on reluctance to sell at a high price. Some of the tungsten ore markets that just need to purchase multiple inquiries are difficult to complete. They have to purchase 1.52 yuan/kg, or even 1.53 yuan/kg. However, transactions at higher prices are very rare, and it cannot be ruled out. Possibility of frying. The focus of the APT market has gradually moved up from 166,000/ton to about 167,000/ton, but the production reduction and shutdown of the powder market has gradually suppressed the APT market. 4 APT companies have stopped production for maintenance, and many other APT companies have also reduced production by 10-20% Although the short-term shortage of APT spot can support the price, the pressure to reduce production is being transmitted to tungsten mines. The current orders in the powder market have not improved. Customers who previously received orders of about 30 tons have only released about 3 tons. Some companies in need have also released their purchases in a decentralized manner, making it even more difficult for powder companies to arrange orders, and there are continuous production cuts and stoppages. Furnace condition occurs. The promotion of alloy enterprises has not been transformed, and some finished product inventories have become a burden to suppress the confidence of alloy enterprises. The terminal consumption still mainly digests the inventory, and there will be no concentrated amount in the short term. The ferrotungsten market is also facing a large-scale production shutdown. Many ferrotungsten plants have already arranged plans to shut down their furnaces, and a small amount of demand can be met with inventory. Individual 70 ferrotungsten transactions are 168,000/base ton, and 80 ferrotungsten transactions are 175,000/base. Ton. Comprehensive analysis, whether it is the "step-up" in 2021 or the range-bound market in 2022, we are providing customers with information with medium and long-term reference value. Although some companies have always insisted on being self-centered, there are still Many companies use our third-party reference to make profits or reduce losses, so that our information reflects the value. Our overall rhetoric in the second quarter has always maintained a cautious and conservative attitude, and the market in the third quarter is likely to continue to be in a weak state. Therefore, we suggest that you continue to take measures to deal with the crisis to ensure the normal survival and operation of the company. It is advisable to postpone.

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