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Fourth quarter demand is the key

At present, the tungsten raw material market as a whole is weak. The tungsten ore market has not yet stabilized due to the impact of traders. APT confidence is weak and the market is adjusted. The pressure on the powder market is insufficient and the demand for alloys is weak. The demand for alloys is difficult to pick up. Exports are in a mess. It seems difficult for the market to see the light. However, after the impact of the epidemic, the global economic rebound momentum has been formed. The worst period has passed. Although the epidemic is still repeated, it cannot stop the determination of governments to restore the economy. Major domestic tungsten companies hope to fight a turnaround in the fourth quarter. Foreign procurement and stocking demand is still expected to be released. If domestic and foreign demand can overlap, there will still be opportunities in the tungsten market in the fourth quarter.

At present, the tungsten ore market is still weak. Although mining companies continue to insist on the price of 83,000/ton, the actual transaction of 55 degree black tungsten is 82,000/ton, and the price of 1.15 yuan/kg degree of coarse sand still has a greater impact on market confidence. Traders are selling goods at high prices and now have replenishment purchase intentions, and traders who stock too much still sell part from time to time, which makes the market difficult to stabilize in the short term, but the bottom support of 80,000/ton is still strong. Close to this price, the market is expected to usher in the support of hoarding demand.

With the introduction of long-term order prices in the APT market, the narrow range of 1275-12.8 million/ton will become the mainstream. As confidence has not yet stabilized, individual low-price transactions are still suppressing market expectations. Although the raw material inventory prices of manufacturers are high and unintentionally low prices However, the lack of demand and the low prices of traders have made the overall market weak, and short-term prices are unlikely to improve.

””””The powder market is still waiting for the release of back-end demand. The powder orders in August-September are relatively saturated, and the demand for delayed orders is obviously insufficient after the holiday. The previous quotation rose from 188 yuan/kg to 205 yuan/kg and then quickly dropped back to 198 yuan/kg. Even if the price of tungsten carbide powder increased by more than 5%, the alloy market did not usher in a price adjustment, reflecting the large contradiction between supply and demand in the alloy market In the later stage, the purchase of alloy enterprises had to hold down the price, and the powder market price was also difficult to maintain the 200 yuan/kg mark.

The overall performance of the export market in the first three quarters was sluggish. However, the safety stocks of tungsten raw materials of Japanese, Korean and some European companies have fallen to a low level, and some just-needed purchases were released in a small amount in September. However, as the price of raw materials in China has fallen, foreign purchases have also been biased. Be cautious, some buyers have severely reduced prices.

Comprehensive analysis, as the global economy enters the post-epidemic normalization stage, large-scale release of water in the capital market has been difficult to sustain. Although China has stimulated consumption to increase the consumption of food, clothing, housing and transportation, the recovery of production enterprises is still slow. Consumption in the tungsten processing field The overall demand is insufficient. In the later stage, we still need to wait for the improvement of alloy terminal consumer demand. Only when the processing and manufacturing fields can gradually increase demand, the surplus caused by the reduction in upstream exports is expected to be relieved, and the market price can be truly supported.

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