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Macroeconomic situation and tungsten market analysis

The overall economic situation in September can be described as "high expectations, low operation". The global economy has shown signs of recovery and rebound in the case of large-scale liquidity stimulation. In particular, the overall financial market is active and the US stock market has basically recovered to the epidemic At the previous high, the real economy of manufacturing in Europe, America and Japan has also slowed down, showing a slight upward trend from the previous month.

As the excessive pessimism of major economies in the early stages of the outbreak eased, confidence in economic recovery gradually increased, and the large-scale liquidity release used to rescue the market began to shrink. For example, the new economic stimulus plan in the United States was stranded, and some European countries The bailout funds applied for have also begun to shrink, which has caused the economic rebound brought about by strong stimulus to slow down. The stock and futures markets that rely on liquidity stimulus have seen obvious high volatility, and some of the data has retraced from the highest level. 10%.

For example, the US Dow Jones Index fell from a high of 29,199 at the beginning of September to about 27,000 at the end of September in September, a decrease of 7.5%; New York gold fell from $2,089 per ounce in early August to around $1,850 per ounce at the end of September, a decrease of 11.4%; Shanghai copper began to fluctuate from a high of 53,520 yuan/ton in mid-July, and fluctuated in the range of 49,500-53,000 in the past two months. At the end of September, it fell below 51,000, a drop of about 5%; DCE iron ore futures began in early August The highest level of 915 yuan / ton continued to fluctuate and fell, and at the end of September it had fallen to a low of 750 yuan / ton, a drop of 18%.

¡¡¡¡The trend of US stocks and gold reflects the impact of global investors¡¯ confidence in economic development. The European epidemic, Sino-US confrontation, and Brexit have made it difficult for the market to form a synergy. In addition to the pressure on Shanghai copper and iron ore futures from tightening liquidity, it is also related to the slight gap between China¡¯s economic recovery in September and market expectations. In the second quarter, driven by China¡¯s large-scale investment in infrastructure, steel, cement, Expansion of production is obvious, but as the economic recovery trend is improving, the Chinese government¡¯s strong stimulus mentality has also changed, and it has begun to suppress bubble assets such as real estate. This has caused some industries to shift from blind optimism to cautious and stable market outlook. However, as the Chinese economy continues to stabilize Well, the development momentum in 2021 is expected to be good, so as long as China's development needs the commodity market is expected to continue to operate at a relatively high level.

Focusing on the tungsten market, the tungsten raw material market in early September also experienced a high decline. Since July, driven by the tungsten ore market, prices have continued to rise. The purchase price of wolframite concentrate has risen from 79,000 to the highest in early September, which is close to 88,000. , An increase of 11.4%, followed by a callback from the peak of 88,000, basically maintained at around 85,000/ton at the end of September, a decrease of about 3.4%. The APT market transaction price started from around 121,000/ton in mid-July, reached a maximum of 133,000/ton in early September, an increase of 10%, and fell to 129,000/ton, a decrease of about 3% by the end of September. The market transaction price of medium-particle tungsten carbide powder started from 188 yuan/kg at the end of July, reached a high of 203 yuan/kg at the beginning of September, an increase of 8%, and at the end of September it dropped to about 198 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 2.5%. From the above data, it can be seen that when the front-end rises, the increase is large, and when it falls, the decrease is also obvious, while the back-end price increase is relatively lagging, and the price decrease is slightly slower. Overall analysis shows that the tungsten raw material market in September is still in a weak adjustment stage. Neither the back-end demand nor foreign demand has been positively driven. The oversupply situation has not substantially improved. The market operation in the fourth quarter will continue to be loaded.

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