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Can the tungsten market continue to rise?

The tungsten market has remained stable for more than two weeks. However, with the deepening of stability, the transactions of various tungsten products have decreased. All production enterprises and traders have entered the market to prepare some inventory. The next step is to digest the inventory. The recent tungsten market can still be briefly summarized in a few words: the supply of tungsten ore is tightening, but production remains. APT stopped production and reduced production, and prices increased slightly. Demand for tungsten powder alloys is weak, but it is supported by raw material costs. Some manufacturers pulled up APT, and the market was deadlocked.

Whether the tungsten market can maintain this upward momentum depends mainly on the continued strength and time of tungsten sand sales and the degree of global epidemic control. The most fundamental impact is the impact of the epidemic on demand. The impact of the epidemic is comprehensive and huge. The major global economies have successively stopped production and consumption, and trade circulation has been severely blocked. As a large export-oriented country, no matter tungsten or other varieties, it is difficult to recover smoothly in a short time. Export amount.

From the comparison of the export of tungsten raw materials in 2018 and 2019, it can be seen that only the exports of tungsten powder, ammonium metatungstate and sodium tungstate have increased. Most of the other major tungsten products have experienced double-digit declines, and the total export volume has decreased by 22.17%. Exports account for more than 30% of the country's total consumption, so the sluggish export orders have a great impact on the entire market.

In the first two months of 2020, the export volume continued to shrink, and the total export of main raw materials decreased by 35.9%. The export data in March will increase, but it is difficult to increase throughout the first quarter. The most difficult is not the first quarter, but the second quarter, because Japan, South Korea, Europe and other regions have successively experienced outbreaks, exporters' orders have been cancelled, factories have ceased production, personnel flow has stalled, and logistics has been blocked, which will greatly reduce the export volume.

 

Moreover, for tungsten, it is not only the impact of direct exports, but the indirect impact will continue. Among China ¡¯s export products, mechanical and electrical products rank first, and automobile exports also account for a large proportion. The indirect demand for tungsten consumption for these products belongs to domestic demand. Therefore, the epidemic abroad has a great impact on the overall demand for tungsten.

To sum up, in the future market, if the supply side continues to tighten, even if the demand is weak, there will not be a sharp price reduction. As long as the supply side is slightly loose, the change in supply and demand imbalance caused by weak demand will be highlighted.

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