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Tungsten City Analysis 8-30: Before the ¡°Pan-Asia¡± was not released, the market returned to the ¡°right track¡±

This week is coming to an end, the market has not waited for clear news about the pan-Asian inventory processing. After nearly two months of embarrassment, the news of ¡°Pan-Asian shipment¡± has been basically digested by the market, before it is actually shipped. The impact has also been basically presented. In the eyes of many manufacturers, the current market is not normal, and even some "distorted", market participants are overly concerned about the impact of "Pan Asia", making the operation very cautious, which makes the market circulation is not smooth, of course, the market performance is so The downturn, the weakness of terminal demand is also difficult to blame.

In the current market, the prices of the main raw materials such as tungsten ore, APT and tungsten powder are all upside down. That is to say, if the current market continues, most of the mines, smelters and powder plants have no profit. . By product;

Tungsten mines continue to be reluctant to sell at a premium, especially for mines that have been upside down, and they will not sell at a lower price. Due to the support of tungsten ore, there is no further decline in the price of downstream tungsten products. 7.3-7.4 million yuan / ton, but the actual transaction volume is small.

According to a person in charge of a tungsten mine in Dayu area, the cost of producing one ton of tungsten concentrate is now more than 60,000 yuan / ton, but this is only the basic mining cost, if you count some other expenses, such as green mines Maintenance, environmental safety and other investment, as well as some other expenses, the current mine price is definitely upside down. However, this manufacturer also said that his mine is already at a lower cost, and some local mines have been discontinued or in a semi-discontinued state.

     This is indeed the case. At present, most of the tungsten mines are in the state of upside down or upside down. At the current market price, there are few mines that have sufficient profitable space. Among the low-cost mines, the Molybdenum and Molybdenum associated minerals represented by Luoluo Group have great advantages. However, due to the decline in grade, Luomo Group¡¯s tungsten ore production in the first half of the year was around 5,200 metal tons, down 9.23% year-on-year. .

       The decrease in output, coupled with the consumption of tungsten sand by its own smelter, has also reduced the amount of tungsten sand sold by Luo Mo, and although the cost is lower, according to this website, the price of Luo Mo molybdenum and APT has been maintained with the market. The average price is equivalent. In addition, the lower cost of the Luoluo pit and the tungsten sand of Luoyang Yulu are mostly internal digestion. Low-cost tungsten sand will not flow out at low prices, and high-cost tungsten sand is more difficult to release at low prices, so even if there is a big negative factor, the possibility of a sharp decline in mine prices is small, of course, unless these mine manufacturers There is also the possibility that the loss will be sold at a low price.

APT supply and demand are tight. Due to the price upside down, the difficulty in buying tungsten sand, the lack of demand, and the uncertain factors in the future, most smelters are still in the state of production shutdown or production reduction, so the supply of APT has become scarce, smelting The manufacturer's intention to sell less than 112,000 yuan / ton is not high, but it is difficult to ship more than 113,000 yuan / ton. The recent transactions are mainly concentrated in 11.111.3 million yuan / ton of cash, more transactions It is long and just needed. Some smelters said that there are two main types of manufacturers to purchase APT. One is a production-oriented enterprise, such as a powder factory, an alloy factory, a product factory, etc., and the purchase of these manufacturers is either in the form of a long order or in the form of bulk cargo, due to the weakening of domestic and international demand since the beginning of the year, plus pan In the case of Asian inventory, the long-term orders of large-scale tungsten enterprises have been reduced a lot. The current demand has not improved, and the pan-Asian problem is still there, so the procurement volume of large enterprises is difficult to enlarge.

The bulk of the transactions are small quantities, because the worry is still there, plus their own orders have not increased, less bulk purchases, not inventory is the operation of these companies, the recent bulk transactions are basically at 11.2 -113,000 yuan / ton, due to the unresolved pan-Asian problem, the procurement methods of these manufacturers will not have major changes in the short term, small batches, multiple batches.

Another type of manufacturer that purchases APT is mainly traded goods. There are also two kinds of traders who sell goods. One is in the market, which is our common manufacturer of tungsten sand and APT trade. The traders operate more concentrated. The time is July, and at this time it is on the sidelines.

The tungsten powder market is very calm, and most of the transactions are just needed. Alloys and products companies have stocked in July. Now the purchases are temporarily used. Few companies will prepare for more than one month. The high and low price of tungsten carbide is 175-178 yuan / kg, the price of medium-grain tungsten powder is 178-180 yuan / kg, and the transaction price is biased to a low level.

This week, the tungsten iron market, due to weak market demand, the actual transaction is very small. The order is also relatively stable. The price of 70 tungsten iron is currently at 13.3-13.6 million yuan/ton, and the price of 80 tungsten iron is 13.6-14.1 million yuan/ton. Due to the poor overall demand of the tungsten iron market, everyone is in a wait-and-see state.

The procurement of foreign manufacturers is slowly recovering. Some manufacturers in the summer vacation countries are returning one after another. The procurement volume is difficult to develop at the moment, and foreign manufacturers are also worried about the domestic market price. The procurement has also been delayed. The price of export APT is maintained at last week's level. - 205 USD / ton.

In summary, the market supply and demand stalemate, the turnover is less, the main raw materials are upside down, the low-cost sale space is limited, the unstable factors still exist, the buyers are still worried about the emotions, so the purchase is basically just as needed.

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